SPC hoisting a day4 and day5 outlook for SEVERE as cold front marches across the northern tier late weekend/early next week. pic.twitter.com/Hzbnjg0uTs
— Jim Cantore (@JimCantore) August 3, 2023
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 AM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023
Valid 061200Z – 111200Z
…DISCUSSION…
…Days 4-5/Sun-Mon — Mid-MS/OH Valley east to NY/PA/MD/VA…
A rather potent mid/upper shortwave trough for this time of year
will develop eastward from the Mid/Upper MS Valley to the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic vicinity Sunday and Monday. At the surface, a
deepening low will move across IA and WI/MI on Sunday, before
lifting east/northeast across Ontario and Quebec on Monday. A
trailing cold front will sweep across the Midwest and likely be
approaching the I-95 corridor by Tuesday morning. Enhanced midlevel
southwesterly flow associated with upper trough atop a very
moist/unstable boundary layer will set the stage for a multi-day
severe weather episode ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front.
All severe hazards appear possible on Sunday from portions of
eastern IA through southern WI/MI into much of IL/IN, northern KY,
and western OH, as a linear convective system moves east across the
region. Tornado potential likely will be focused closer to the
surface low track, and along a warm front extending from the low
east/southeast across parts of southern WI/MI into northern IL/IN.
The system will continue east on Monday, impacting portions of the
upper OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes/central Appalachians vicinity. The
surface low will be shifting further northeast into Canada.
Nevertheless, large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough,
and moderate vertical shear atop very moist and unstable boundary
layer will continue to support severe convection ahead of the
eastward advancing cold front. Damaging winds will likely be the
greatest concern on Monday.
www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
All hazards including damaging wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes will be possible on Sunday in the yellow outlined area. We will have updates but if you have any outdoor plans, keep updated on the weather as the day goes on. #ilwx pic.twitter.com/D8kH1dKDcU
— Bob Waszak (@nilwxreports) August 3, 2023
h/t DOORBERT