This isn’t a run-of-the-mill doom-and-gloom production, this is a brutally honest, understandable and detailed explanation as to why the US stock market and the 10 biggest companies’ stocks are insanely over-valued. The biggest companies: Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet(Google), Amazon, Meta (Fecesbook), Tesla, Broadcom, Berkshire-Hathaway (Warren Buffet), Wallmart
The Market Cap to GDP Ratio (also known as the Buffett Indicator) is a measure of the total value of all publicly-traded stocks in a country, divided by that country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
In 1929: it was 81%
In 2000 dot-com-bubble: 140%
In 2008: sub-prime mortgage crisis: 110%
2025: 200%+
"There have always been bubbles" — true
But never in history has this happened before to this extent. The closest parallel is the Nifty Fifty preceding 1973-74 bear market. "The Rise of Mega Firms" explains why: https://t.co/yd2uGO5pPq https://t.co/bb5sCjBwXj pic.twitter.com/e7sdvgjrgB— Michael Green (@profplum99) January 6, 2025
It's easy to be this optimistic when the Fed is doing QE, rates are at zero, the labor market is adding 300k jobs per month and no tariffs in sight.
Ah, wait a second… pic.twitter.com/ExrDQFi9jc
— Alf (@MacroAlf) January 6, 2025
“banks have now seen 12 straight quarters of unrealized losses, the longest streak since the 2008 Financial Crisis…”
To everyone who says these losses ‘don’t count’ that they are on held to maturity bonds, that’s only true until there’s a run on the banks — as there should be… https://t.co/qAIIKUea6V
— Porter Stansberry (@porterstansb) January 6, 2025
The Buffett Indicator (Total US Market Value/GDP) is a ballpark measure of how expensive stocks are at any one point in history…
It’s now sitting at ~205%.
“If the ratio approaches 200%, as it did in 1999, you are playing with fire.” – W. Buffett pic.twitter.com/SC4wCLrOVq
— Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) January 6, 2025
Welcome back Steve pic.twitter.com/9UcxmcM5AC
— Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) January 6, 2025
SPX, I can't make a bull case here. pic.twitter.com/sHS6zMug8c
— Godzilla Trader 🦖 (@David_Tracey) January 6, 2025
Welcome back Steve pic.twitter.com/9UcxmcM5AC
— Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) January 6, 2025
Who loves to buy the most overvalued stock market in our history?
— Blueskies (@Blueskies042) January 6, 2025
AC
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