Here is where it gets interesting.
First off, the S&P 500 is carving out a head and shoulders top above the still open election gap.
Secondly, last week's decline was -5% whereas the decline in August was -10%. However, the % bullish now is lower than it was at the August… pic.twitter.com/V6ISf3meiZ
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) December 24, 2024
THE US ECONOMY IS ON THE BRINK OF COLLAPSE!
The drastic drop in consumer confidence this December isn’t just a warning—it’s the sound of alarm bells ringing! The Expectations Index is hovering at the critical threshold of 80. History tells us what this means: a recession is knocking at the door.Consumers have lost hope in future income and job opportunities. The FED and government’s fake ‘growth’ narrative is unraveling. While the real economy crumbles, they keep inflating Wall Street bubbles. This is the true face of America’s so-called ‘strong economy’!
The dollar is weakening, a recession is looming, and stagflation might follow. Dark days are ahead for those unprepared. This collapse cannot be swept under the rug, ladies and gentlemen!
THE US ECONOMY IS ON THE BRINK OF COLLAPSE!
The drastic drop in consumer confidence this December isn’t just a warning—it’s the sound of alarm bells ringing! The Expectations Index is hovering at the critical threshold of 80. History tells us what this means: a recession is…— Dr. Jim Willie (@dr_jimwillie) December 24, 2024
#Concentration.
h/t @themarketear pic.twitter.com/qGkhpCk4pT— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) December 24, 2024
BREAKING: US rental vacancy rates surged to 6.8% in November, the highest since July 2020.
This is in-line with levels recorded in September 2017.
After a massive drop, rental vacancy rates are now up a net 3 percentage points over the last 3 years.
The highest vacancy rates… pic.twitter.com/9dUouPwVwn
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) December 24, 2024
If the 30-year closes at this level, it is a new 2024 yield high.
The 10-year is about 12 bps away (4.62% now, 4.74% on April 25). pic.twitter.com/WMOIAn5XLv
— Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) December 24, 2024
Low survey response rates are clearly endemic. Making matters worse is survivorship bias amidst a bankruptcy run with few precedents as @j77324 rightly observes. https://t.co/ks6tNvMxSq
— Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) December 24, 2024
Prior to 2008, the fundamentals were much stronger than now. The jobs market was booming and people weren’t going into debt to buy groceries. Everyone had money. I was the poorest in my life at that time and we weren’t struggling as much as we are now. Today, it’s a bifurcated economy. There are the haves–the people that bought prior to the run up and the have nots, people who were born too late or, in my case, sold their home at the wrong time due to life changes.
The biggest similarity to that time is from the same cause: An investor class run amok. It seems most the Covid and PPP money was thrown into real estate.
Major shift in the Treasury curve with a critical spread uninverting for the first time in years. Bonds and central banks are on the move, which leaves some of Treasury market going the wrong way. And the only reason is Jay Powell. From swaps to other bonds, even something called term premia, the Fed is in the dark while bonds are lighting up.
h/t Likely_a_bot