People think the yield curve is broken as a recession indicator. People are dumb. The recession kicks off AFTER the curve UNINVERTS. So 2025 is looking bad.

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Conference Board: the leading economic index rose in Nov for the 1st time in over 2 years and now no longer signals an impending recession; the increase (which immediately followed the presidential election) was driven mostly by surging equity prices: pic.twitter.com/xqKrZuBtvi

— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) December 20, 2024

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h/t mark000