A Republican Trifecta Highly Likely, My House Guess 221 Republican to 214 Democrat

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by Mike Shedlock

It would take a miracle for Democrats to win the House

Image courtesy of Wall Street Journal.

House Chart Notes

  • Gains and losses appear to be final numbers not yet established.
  • I added the red squares. Any race with a difference under 1 percentage point in in red squares.
  • The Maryland square is particularly at risk for Democrats, tied at 50-50.
  • Most of the races appear to be callable. I expect most of those soon will be.
  • Four seats in Arizona, seven seats in California, and another in Maryland will decide the makeup.
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I factored all of that in and came up with something on the order of 221-214 for Republicans.

The current House makeup is 220-212 with 3 vacancies.

Thus, I am now calling for a Republican pickup of 1. It might easily be -1, 0, 2, or 3. And that’s probably the best range to think about. My forecast was for Republicans to lose 3.

This shows just how much the House is gerrymandered by both parties (but more so Democrats) when you only gain 1 or 2 seats in an electoral college blowout.

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I factored gerrymandering into my forecast.

Harris Finally Speaking

By the Way, it’s 4:25 PM and Kamala Harris is just now finally speaking.

“While I concede the election, I do not concede the fight that fueled this campaign.”

Harris mentioned guns, abortion, equal justice, and fundamental rights.

“We will wage the battle in the courts. …This is a time to mobilize for the sake of freedom. … There’s a historical adage, only when it is dark enough can we see the stars.”

 

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