A French crypto trader, known only as “Théo,” shocked markets with a $48 million bet on Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Using the crypto betting platform Polymarket, Théo spread his wager across four accounts, banking on Trump winning both the Electoral College and the popular vote. What makes this bet stand out isn’t just the staggering amount—it’s Théo’s unorthodox method of assessing political sentiment.
Rather than relying on mainstream polling, Théo commissioned his own surveys based on the “neighbour method.” This method works differently from typical polling, which asks individuals whom they intend to vote for. Instead, it asks whom they believe their neighbors are likely to support. Known as a way to reduce social desirability bias—the tendency to answer in socially acceptable ways—the neighbor method can reveal deeper, often less reported, trends in voter sentiment.
Théo’s surveys hinted at an undercurrent of support for Trump, which contradicted the mainstream polling that had widely reported strong backing for Kamala Harris. The results showed Harris’s support could be overstated by traditional polls, suggesting that more voters, though possibly hesitant to voice support outright, believed Trump was favored by others around them. By focusing on perceived community leanings, Théo tapped into sentiments that might otherwise go unnoticed.
The outcome? Théo’s risky $48 million bet proved successful, generating massive profits and raising questions about the limitations of conventional polling.
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The French whale who bet $48 MILLION on a Trump victory commissioned his own surveys that used the “neighbour method”.
His surveys showed that Kamala Harris' support was overstated using traditional polling methods.
Chad! 👊😎 pic.twitter.com/bDlpvNrTQQ
— Radar🚨 (@RadarHits) November 7, 2024
The Polymarket CEO was excellent on CNBC today.
The betting markets may replace the polls one day.
Much more accurate. People putting money where their mouth is. Have skin in the game.
Polls are rigged and have failed us.
— QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) November 7, 2024
Sources:
- MSN – The Polymarket ‘whale’ banked $48 million in profits on Trump’s election win
- MSN – Polymarket ‘whale’ who bet big on Trump win raked in $48M in profits
- Business Standard – How a French trader predicted Trump’s victory by asking about the neighbour