Full-time employment has declined year-over-year since February, longest drop since lockdowns. Private sector jobs and wages are now on shaky ground.

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Since February 2024, year-over-year full-time employment has been declining, marking the longest downward trend since the pandemic lockdowns. This consistent drop signals growing vulnerability in the labor market, especially as private sector payroll growth shows signs of slowing down. Analysts suggest that private sector jobs may see notable declines, which could accelerate unemployment across multiple sectors.

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Wages are also feeling the impact. Pay growth for job-stayers slowed to 4.6% annually by October 2024, a marked deceleration that hints at underlying economic pressures. This slowdown in wage growth may reflect cautious corporate hiring and cost-cutting as companies brace for a challenging economic landscape.

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