by Michael
I have to be honest, the early voting numbers look really good for Donald Trump. At this stage, Democrats were supposed to have cast more ballots than Republicans in North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada, but instead Republicans have a solid lead in ballots cast in all three states. Trump’s poll numbers have been surging throughout the month of October, and he clearly has the momentum right now. There is talk that we could be witnessing a “Kamala collapse”, but there is still one factor that could save the Harris campaign, and it should not be ignored.
The Democrats were counting on building up a huge margin during the early voting period like they did in 2020, but that has definitely not happened this time around…
In previous elections, Democrats have been much more likely to vote early as Republicans turn up on Election Day.
Registered Democrats led by 7.5 percentage points during early voting in 2016. That nearly doubled to a 14.3-point gap in the midst of a global pandemic in the 2020 election.
As of Monday, early voting among Democrats was just 3.8 points higher than Republicans.
However, there is one number that gives the Harris campaign hope.
According to NBC News, 54 percent of all early votes have been cast by women, and only 44 percent of all early votes have been cast by men.
That is huge, because Harris is doing really well with women in the polls…
An analysis of Reuters/Ipsos polls conducted in October shows that, among women, Harris led Trump by 12 points.
Additionally, Harris only trailed Trump by 2 points among white women – 46% to 44% – a much smaller margin than the 16-point lead Trump had over Joe Biden in the 2020 election.
This could end up being the deciding factor in this campaign.
In several of the most important swing states, women are outvoting men by a double digit margin…
In the swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina, there is at least a 10-point gap between men and women in the early vote. The gender gap was widest in Pennsylvania as of 2 a.m. ET on Thursday, with women accounting for about 56 percent of the early vote, and men for about 43 percent.
Pennsylvania, the largest battleground state, is key for both Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump, and both have campaigned in the state more than any other as polls show a tight race in the final days of the campaign. Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.
Women like to get things out of the way, while men like to procrastinate.
That is just the way that it is.
But if men don’t show up in large numbers on November 5th, there is a very good chance that Kamala Harris could end up winning.
Conservative pundit Charlie Kirk is really freaked out about this…
Early vote has been disproportionately female.
If men stay at home, Kamala is president. It’s that simple.
If you want a vision of the future if you don’t vote, imagine Kamala’s voice cackling, forever.
Men need to GO VOTE NOW.
This is the one thing that could keep a “Kamala collapse” from happening.
Because every other early voting number that we are getting looks very good for Trump.
For example, in Georgia a “massive number” of people that did not vote in 2020 are showing up to cast their ballots…
A massive number of Georgians who did not participate in the 2020 presidential election recently voted early as former President Donald Trump (R) and Vice President Kamala Harris (D) battle for the White House, an analysis shows.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution (AJC) and GeorgiaVotes.com found that over half a million of the people living in the state who did not vote in 2020 have already cast their ballot, the outlet reported on Wednesday.
Trump has been polling far better among people that do not vote regularly than Harris has.
So this is a very promising sign for the Trump campaign.
Also, turnout in Georgia is highest in “sparsely populated rural counties where Republicans dominate”…
In a social media post on Thursday, AJC political reporter Greg Bluestein pointed out, “The highest early voting turnout in Georgia isn’t in Democratic strongholds such as DeKalb County or the fiercely contested suburbs that surround metro Atlanta.”
“It’s in sparsely populated rural counties where Republicans dominate,” he added.
I think that Trump is going to win Georgia.
According to the final AtlasIntel battleground poll, Trump is actually leading in all seven of the most hotly contested swing states…
The most accurate poll of 2020, AtlasIntel, releases their final battleground poll showing Trump winning all 7 battleground states.
Finish strong, vote, and make this a reality.
Arizona: Trump +5
North Carolina: Trump +4
Nevada: Trump +4
Georgia: Trump +2
Pennsylvania: Trump +1
Michigan: Trump +1
Wisconsin: Trump +.3If this is how the election plays out, Trump would win 312 electoral votes.
The “Trump surge” is so obvious at this point that even pollster Frank Luntz has been forced to admit that Trump has the momentum. The following is what he told CNN during a recent interview…
Luntz said, “Because it reminds me so much of 2016. And I think there are a lot of similarities right now between this campaign and that campaign. The divisions in the country were significant back then, people didn’t think Trump had a chance back then. He’s been gaining and gaining the momentum. I don’t know who’s going to win. I can’t call it, and nobody should because statistically and polling and focus groups, it is way too close to call. However, the momentum is clearly — in what I see and what I hear — is in his favor.”
And it appears that Trump’s momentum could also help Republicans win the House and Senate…
The Republican brand is benefitting from a late surge on the generic congressional ballot. The GOP had been behind all summer, sometimes by as much as two points. Ten days ago, however, the Republican Party began to climb in the RealClearPolitics average poll of generic ballot polls. Today, the GOP leads by nearly a full point, 47.6 to 46.7 percent.
This is no fluke, meaning it is not based on one outlier poll that can skew the entire field. Of the seven most recent polls, Republicans have led in five and two are tied. That shows real movement in the closing days of the campaign.
But I must stress that none of these poll numbers are going to mean anything if men don’t show up in huge numbers to vote on November 5th.
As we have seen in the past, the polls can be very wrong.
What really matters is people showing up to vote.
In 1980, the race between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan was considered to be extremely tight, but Reagan ended up winning in a landslide.
In 2012, the race between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney was considered to be extremely tight, but Obama ended up winning in a landslide.
If men only cast 44 percent of the total votes in this election, Trump is not going to win.
So let’s watch and see if they actually show up to vote on Tuesday…