The economy is actually worse now than at the height of a nationwide shutdown. Recent findings from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reveal that over 14% of American households are worried about missing a debt payment in the next three months, marking the highest level of concern since April 2020. This increase is particularly pronounced among middle-aged and high-earning respondents, highlighting a troubling trend in financial stability.
While the GDPNow forecast from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta indicates that nominal GDP growth and inflation have accelerated after a slowdown in the second quarter, the latest estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2024 stands at 3.4%. Furthermore, a predicted Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) growth rate of 3.6% for the same period adds to the unease.
Rising costs of living, higher interest rates, and stagnant wages are likely contributing to these concerns, creating a perfect storm where even minor financial hiccups can feel overwhelming. This environment could prompt tighter lending standards, potentially slowing economic growth further.
x.com/unusual_whales/status/1849057432070238629
Based on the GDPNow forecast, nominal growth, and inflation have accelerated after slowing in 2Q. GDPNOW forecast PCE of 3.6% in 3Q pic.twitter.com/5dECRQKPRX
— Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) October 23, 2024
Treasury term premium is rising. pic.twitter.com/aYvUFW1u27
— (((The Daily Shot))) (@SoberLook) October 23, 2024
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