Harris is also down 10 PP with Blacks but is up 5 PP with Whites. This has potential House ramifications.
Chart Notes
- 2024 numbers are from a Berkeley IGS Poll, released October 10, 2024.
- 2020 numbers are from a 2020 CNN exit poll.
In addition to the 21 percentage point drop for Harris among Latinos, the second striking thing is the huge percentage of undecided voters for blacks and Latinos at 10 percent and 7 percent respectively.
ISG Poll Snips
The latest Berkeley IGS Poll among 3,045 likely voters across California, finds Vice President Kamala Harris comfortably ahead of former President Donald Trump 57% to 35%, with each polling close to their respective shares of their party’s electorate in this deeply blue state. Another 3% are favoring other candidates, while 5% undecided.
Harris holds big leads in the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles County, and the Central Coast, while Trump runs even or is narrowly ahead in Orange County, the Inland Empire, the Central Valley and in the North Coast/Sierras region.
Because of the poll’s large sample size, the responses of undecided voters can also be examined, and their opinions are more varied. For example, undecided voters choose Harris as the candidate who will do more for working people, who can better unite the country and who cares about the needs of people like you. However, undecided voters see Trump as being better in managing the nation’s economy, better in managing the nation’s foreign policy, has the right vision for the country’s future, and has the toughness needed to be president.
Democrats Make California a Battleground State
I picked up the idea for this post and created the above chart in response to the Wall Street Journal post Democrats Make California a Battleground State
A backlash against liberal governance in Sacramento is bolstering Republicans in several pivotal districts.
If Speaker Mike Johnson keeps his House GOP majority this year, he may have progressives in California to thank. The path for Democrats to retake the House runs through the Golden State, where a backlash against liberal governance in Sacramento is bolstering Republicans.
The GOP has been losing ground in California for decades, but this year may mark an inflection point. Republican registration as a share of the electorate was higher in September than it was at the same point in 2020. If that holds up until Election Day, it will be the first such rise from one presidential election year to the next since 1988. In the past two years Republicans have shrunk the voter-registration gap by 1 to 3 percentage points in seven pivotal districts. They are seeking to hold five them and pick up two.
A recent University of California, Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll showed Kamala Harris leading among Latinos by 19 points, down from Joe Biden’s 52-point margin in 2020. [Mish Note: My math is different. See comment below]
Harris Down Does Not Mean Trump Up by Same Amount
I calculate a 52 point margin in 2020 for Biden by subtracting Biden minus Trump exit polls (75-23=52). I calculate Harris is down 21 now (54 now vs 75 Biden in the 2020 exit poll).
Trump is not up by the amount Harris is down because of undecided voters and votes for other parties. There are no undecided voters in exit polls.
For example, among Latinos, I have Harris down 21 vs 2020 exit polls, with Trump up 12, undecided voters up 7, and someone else up 2.
The Most Accurate Pollster in 2020 Has Blockbuster Polls for Trump
Yesterday, I noted The Most Accurate Pollster in 2020 Has Blockbuster Polls for Trump
And it was not just the most accurate pollster, but three high quality polls. See the above post for details and comments on the polls, pollster bias, and the economy.
It’s the economy that is breaking hard in favor of Trump.
Addendum
Exit polls in 2020 were overweighted to people skeptical of mail-in ballots. That may mean the decline in support for Harris in 2024 vs Biden in 2020 is even greater than shown.