Housing Starts and Permits Slip Again in September

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by Mike Shedlock

Housing continues to slowly weaken and completions surge relative to starts and permits.

Building Permits

  • Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,428,000.
  • This is 2.9 percent below the revised August rate of 1,470,000 and is 5.7 percent below the September 2023 rate of 1,515,000.
  • Single-family authorizations in September were at a rate of 970,000; this is 0.3 percent above the revised August figure of 967,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 398,000 in September.

Housing Starts

  • Privately-owned housing starts in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,354,000.
  • This is 0.5 percent (±13.0 percent) below the revised August estimate of 1,361,000 and is 0.7 percent (±16.1 percent) below the September 2023 rate of 1,363,000.
  • Single-family housing starts in September were at a rate of 1,027,000; this is 2.7 percent (±13.4 percent) above the revised August figure of 1,000,000. The September rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 317,000.
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Housing Completions

  • Privately-owned housing completions in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,680,000.
  • This is 5.7 percent (±19.9 percent) below the revised August estimate of 1,781,000, but is 14.6 percent (±11.9 percent) above the September 2023 rate of 1,466,000.
  • Single-family housing completions in September were at a rate of 1,000,000; this is 2.7 percent (±7.8 percent) below the revised August rate of 1,028,000. The September rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 671,000.
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Details from the Census Bureau New Residential Construction report.

Housing Starts Single Family vs Multi-Family

The trend on starts is negative led by multi-family.

Since May 2023, single-family starts have been steady on average, but in a very choppy fashion. The average over this period has been 1,006. Vs May 2023, single-family starts are up 2.8 percent.

Total starts dropped from 1,583 to 1,354. That’s a decline of 14.5 percent.

Multi-family starts from 584 to 327. That’s a plunge of 44.0 percent. Wow.

Housing Starts 1959-Present

To put the housing report numbers into proper perspective, starts are 18.3 percent below January of 1959.

 

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