“Some of us have been telling you for a while that the rate cut would do nothing to help the housing market. It’s going to go through a 2008-style correction. It doesn’t matter if you have a housing shortage. If no one can afford the house payment, demand is destroyed. On a supply/demand curve, housing’s equilibrium is at a much lower price point. Econ 101. Prices must come down. There will be rising supply and no demand until it happens. And before somebody shows up saying, “This is nothing like 2008, because then was subprime mortgages and today is blah, blah, blah,” let me quickly remind you of an economic certainty: You do not need similar causes to have similar outcomes. You only need a bubble and a catalyst. We have both. And the bubble is three times bigger now than it was then.”
Some of us have been telling you for a while that the rate cut would do nothing to help the housing market. It’s going to go through a 2008-style correction.
It doesn’t matter if you have a housing shortage. If no one can afford the house payment, demand is destroyed. On a… t.co/UUVhE9firs
— Uncle Milty’s Ghost (@his_eminence_j) October 16, 2024
CRE Delinquency Rates
During the last three recessions, delinquency rates on commercial real estate have increased year-over-year.
They are now rising again, with a 67 percent year-over-year increase.
Interestingly, this is happening despite some work-from-home trends… pic.twitter.com/I5IVejaYSr
— Reef Insights (@ReefInsights) October 16, 2024
1 in 4 Americans struggle with housing costs: Census Bureau
Middle-class homeowners are increasingly squeezed by housing costs
Prices Drop in 26 of 28 Big Metros, even San Diego, Los Angeles
