#recession … #GFC2 US edition
The similarities to 2008 keep piling up! t.co/aJtSdrXFJs pic.twitter.com/EL1Y1i91Cm
— Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) July 20, 2023
The Leading Economic Index Declined in June for the 15th Month in a Row, Longest Down Since 2007–08
The U.S. economy, while currently still growing, shows alarming signs of a looming recession. The leading economic index, a measure of ten key indicators, declined by 0.7% in June. This represents the 15th consecutive month of shrinkage, a recession red flag reminiscent of the Great Recession in 2007-2008. Furthermore, seven of the ten indicators tracked by the Conference Board have shown a downward trend, suggesting a broad-based economic slowdown. This continued contraction is worrying many economists, leading to an increased prediction of a recession within the next year. The potential downturn is driven by factors such as escalating prices, tighter monetary policy, increasingly difficult-to-acquire credit, and reduced government spending. The Federal Reserve’s sharp uptick in borrowing costs, aimed at countering inflation, is an additional headwind for the economy. The Conference Board is forecasting a recession from Q3 2023 to Q1 2024. Although the current growth rate is higher than expected, the sustained decline in leading indicators and anticipated monetary tightening signal an upcoming slowdown. This forecasted recession, accompanied by lower government spending, tight monetary policy, and credit challenges, presents a gloomy outlook for the near future.
Is a recession on the horizon?
Unraveling the mystery of the inverted yield curve is a captivating economic indicator with investors and analysts buzzing. Discover what happens when this curve takes an unexpected turn. #economy #investments #recession #crypto pic.twitter.com/Ua4nn5KPVg
— Satoshi Stacker (@StackerSatoshi) July 21, 2023
If the US is able to achieve a 'soft landing' and avoid a technical recession, it would one of the only times at least half a century the 2/10 Treasury spread has been inverted without turning into a #recession.
There was a brief inversion mid-1998 without, but very mild pic.twitter.com/igxedSEVj1
— John Kicklighter (@JohnKicklighter) July 21, 2023
US Building Permits fell 3.7% in June, against a slight increase expected. As the chart shows, building permits, one of the indicators in our US #recession scoreboard, have been stuck in no man's land in recent months. Recession or not? pic.twitter.com/9bs1GzlLNv
— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) July 19, 2023
#recession … #GFC2 US edition t.co/myqH2doH84 pic.twitter.com/n55oo2iDQR
— Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) July 18, 2023
🇹🇼 Taiwan export orders -24.91% YoY.
In #recession territory!
Chart: @MacroMicroMe pic.twitter.com/QhNoABcrt9
— Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) July 20, 2023
#recession … #GFC2 US #PMI edition t.co/00mRJSNtju
— Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) July 21, 2023
Thank you @RyanDetrick for pointing this out.
The latest 2M jump (39.4) is the 4th largest on record (data going back to May 1968).
But 2 out of 3 larger 2M gains were during a #recession, specifically Apr 1974 (59.2) and May 1974 (40), while only Mar 1991 (50.9) was not.
From… t.co/scg7UP25H7 pic.twitter.com/FqVBhFsiOZ
— Marko Bjegovic (@MBjegovic) July 21, 2023
🇺🇸 US Conference Board Leading Economic Index -9.93% drawdown from 3 year high!
Deep in #recession territory!
Chart: @MacroMicroMe pic.twitter.com/KwLOQ364SA
— Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) July 20, 2023
Throw back to the last time we were squabbling about whether or not we were in a recession
Spoiler Alert: The Recession punched everyone in the face 2 months later pic.twitter.com/Mw9xmG4CGK
— Amy Nixon (@texasrunnerDFW) July 21, 2023
🇨🇳 China’s nominal real estate investment -20.2% YoY!
H/t: @PkZweifel #recession pic.twitter.com/7FVnCmmEz6
— Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) July 19, 2023
Canadian Retail Sales YoY index at its lowest level since the pre-stimulus madness in 2021. pic.twitter.com/hd8Wfu1RQy
— Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) July 21, 2023
Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke Says Next Fed Interest Rate Hike May Be Its Last
Ex-Fed Chairman Bernanke foresees that the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates again at its next meeting, potentially driving a slowdown in the U.S. economy. This rate hike, as per futures market predictions, could be the last for a while, but not before causing potential damage. Bernanke’s forecast resonates with his infamous “No Recession On Horizon” statement before the 2008 crisis, raising doubts about the accuracy of his predictions. Inflation is expected to drop “more durably” to the 3% to 3.5% range over the next six months, according to Bernanke, but only after triggering substantial financial stress. He believes the Fed will then take time to get down to its 2% target, implying prolonged economic unease. Bernanke also voiced concerns about the overheated job market. Despite a decline in job vacancies, there remains about 1.6 positions open for each unemployed person. This imbalance between demand and supply in the labor market needs to be addressed before the Fed can claim victory over inflation. Finally, Bernanke predicted a U.S. economic slowdown and a modest increase in unemployment, essential trade-offs to bring inflation under control. Although he anticipates any potential recession to be mild, his assurances carry the weight of his ill-fated 2008 prediction, casting a dark shadow over his current prognosis.