The labor market is trending toward a recession

According to the Conference Board, the difference between the share of Americans saying that jobs are plentiful and those saying they are hard to get has indeed declined to 16.4%, the narrowest since March 20211. This measure, known as the labor market differential, often correlates with the unemployment rate.

While consumer confidence has reached a six-month high, concerns about the labor market have risen. The unemployment rate has recently increased to 4.3%, the highest in nearly three years. Historically, such trends in consumer perceptions have been leading indicators for higher unemployment rates.

Sources:
www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-consumer-confidence-scales-six-month-high-labor-market-angst-rises/ar-AA1px1zc

finance.yahoo.com/news/us-consumer-confidence-rises-august-141644495.html

apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-75e1a0e0eb737a298b5e71b1965bfac3

confoundedinterest.net/2024/09/02/happy-labor-day-market-pricing-in-nearly-250-bps-in-rate-cuts-while-biden-harris-overstate-job-gains-by-almost-1-million-jobs/

The final straw that breaks the camels back of the economy will be when unemployment surpasses 5% nationally (on its way to 6%). Home prices are going to crash like a ton of bricks.

— Sold At The Top (@soldatthetop) September 2, 2024