We haven’t started cutting rates yet. Rate cutting started in 2007, and are a reasonably reliable indicator of incoming (but not immediate) crash in many more recessions if you look back with 2020 hindsight.
We never actually raised rates enough to recover from 2008 (in fact it was historically low 0% bailout rates for 15 years)and only raised them back up to normal recently, never rising up enough to actually address inflation, so when things do implode it will be impressive. But it probably won’t happen overnight. Rates are reduced, inverted yield curve uninverts, THEN crash. 2025 looks more likely, but the usual indicators of a crash haven’t happened yet so if it happens sooner its more because of international cascade issues
h/t Perfect_Alarm_2141
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