by Michael
It looks like investors are starting to figure it out. Bad economic numbers continue to come pouring in, but so far the Federal Reserve has refused to pull the trigger on a rate cut. We have seen this story before, and it never ends well. It is often said that “he who hesitates is lost”, and in this case the Fed’s hesitation could mean a tremendous amount of economic pain during the months ahead. On Thursday, Wall Street responded to the Fed’s inaction by throwing a bit of a temper tantrum. At one point the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 744 points, and it closed the session down 494 points…
The Dow dropped 494.82 points, or 1.21%, to end at 40,347.97. At its session lows, the 30-stock index lost 744.22 points, or about 1.8%. The S&P 500 shed 1.37% to end at 5,446.68, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 2.3% to 17,194.15. The Russell 2000 index, the small-cap benchmark that has rallied lately, dropped 3%.
Many still believe that the Fed will give us a rate cut in September.
But there are others that are concerned that “the Fed may not be acting quickly enough to keep America’s job market in good shape”…
The narrative on Wall Street is shifting.
Traders have long placed their bets on the Federal Reserve cutting rates in September, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell basically confirmed as much Wednesday.
That rate cut, expected in six weeks, was priced in to stocks, which have been rising over the past few months in hopes of a cut. Rate cuts tend to juice stocks, because they lower borrowing costs for businesses and can help boost profits.
But now, fear is starting to take hold, as concerns mount that the Fed may not be acting quickly enough to keep America’s job market in good shape.
Economist Claudia Sahm is one prominent expert that is deeply alarmed by the Fed’s lack of action.
Considering all of the troubling numbers that we have seen in recent days, she is wondering what they are waiting for…
If the Federal Reserve is starting to set the table for interest rate reductions, some parts of the market are getting impatient for dinner to be served.
“What is it they’re looking for?” Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors, said on CNBC just after the Fed concluded its meeting Wednesday. “The bar is getting set pretty high and that really doesn’t make a lot of sense. The Fed needs to start that process back gradually to normal, which means gradually reducing interest rates.”
DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach is using even stronger language.
He says that the Fed is risking a recession by not making a move now…
DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach also thinks the Fed is risking recession by holding a hard line on rates.
“That’s exactly what I think because I’ve been at this game for over 40 years, and it seems to happen every single time,” Gundlach said, speaking to CNBC’s Scott Wapner on “Closing Bell” on Wednesday. “All the other underlying aspects of employment data are not improving. They’re deteriorating. And so once it starts to get to that upper level, where they have to start cutting rates, it is going to be more than they think.”
Of course there are many numbers that seem to indicate that we may already be in the early stages of a new recession.
For example, earlier today we learned that the ISM manufacturing index was in contraction territory once again last month…
The ISM (Institute for Supply Management) Manufacturing PMI registered 46.8% last month, indicating industry economic activity contracted at a faster rate when compared to June’s figure of 48.5%.
“After breaking a 16-month streak of contraction by expanding in March, the manufacturing sector has contracted the last four months,” says Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM’s manufacturing business survey committee.
In addition, initial applications for unemployment benefits jumped to the highest level in about a year last week…
New economic data revealed that first-time applications for jobless benefits rose last week to an estimated 249,000 filings. That’s the highest tally since last August, according to the Labor Department. Meanwhile, continuing claims, filed by people who have received unemployment benefits for at least a week, jumped to 1.877 million. That’s the highest level since November 2021.
Sadly, a lot more layoffs are coming as thousands upon thousands of businesses get into very serious trouble all over the nation.
This week, we learned that a furniture retailer that had survived the Great Depression, the Great Recession and the COVID pandemic is closing all 380 of their stores and filing for bankruptcy…
A 120-year-old furniture chain will shutter all 380 stores after its parent company filed for bankruptcy — the latest brick-and-mortar business to buckle from high overhead costs and massive debt.
Badcock Home Furniture & More, which has stores throughout the South, announced a “going out of business” sale Tuesday.
The company was purchased last year by Conn’s, a Texas-based furniture retailer, which filed for bankruptcy last week.
After 120 years, this is how it ends.
Of course there are lots of other retailers that have also been going belly up this year…
Other furniture chains, including Bob’s Stores, Z Gallerie and Mitchell Gold + Bob Williams, filed for bankruptcy this year.
Overall, US retailers had announced the closure of almost 2,600 stores in 2024.
If the U.S. economy really is in “good shape” like the mainstream media is insisting, then why is this happening?
In my opinion, we are experiencing the leading edge of an economic storm which will greatly intensify during the second half of 2024.
And the outlook for 2025 is absolutely dismal.
So what should you do about all of this?
In the short-term, protect your assets and build up a sizable emergency fund. No matter what happens, you are going to need to have enough money to pay your bills.
In the long-term, I am entirely convinced that we are going to experience the most painful period in our entire history.
Our leaders have been making incredibly bad decisions for decades, and now we have entered a time when the consequences of those decisions will become obvious to all of us.
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