Half the jobs never existed?

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Here are the details regarding the job growth discrepancy for Q4 2023:

  • Initial Reports: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) initially reported a net gain of 637,000 nonfarm payroll jobs for Q4 2023.
  • Revised Figures: The Business Employment Dynamics (BED) report later showed a net employment gain of 344,000 private sector jobs for the same period.
  • Discrepancy: This means there was an overestimation of approximately 293,000 jobs in the initial reports.

The overestimation was largely due to the “Birth-Death” model used by the BLS, which estimates the number of jobs created by new businesses minus the jobs lost by closing businesses. This model can sometimes lead to significant revisions when more accurate data becomes available.

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Sources:

www.foxbusiness.com/economy/initial-us-employment-reports-overstated-jobs

www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240110284/jobs-report-exaggerated-the-increase-in-us-hiring-in-2023

www.bls.gov/emp/

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