The break will be hard.
And fast.
And take everyone by surprise. pic.twitter.com/kk26gMoGBN
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) July 8, 2024
12m forward EPS est have surged to $260 (blend '24/'25), while actual earnings have been *flat* around $225 for ~2yrs.
Plus paying 21x fwd, levels only seen in the tech bubble at these bond yields. pic.twitter.com/JcFgZhs7PJ
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) July 8, 2024
There are generally good reasons to focus on forward earnings rather than trailing, since in general it helps smooth out what could be one-off things in the back history (like negative earnings), and also sets the pricing baseline based on what's ahead, not what's behind.
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) July 8, 2024
At an index level, topline sales growth rarely diverges from NGDP growth. Today that's in the ballpark of 5%, just a touch below topline estimates of 6% for 24/25.
Its the margin expansion expected that is notably extreme – penciling out the highest levels ever in '25. pic.twitter.com/xvJzp6hAXT
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) July 8, 2024
"This is the last bullish US #Equity email that I will be sending out for now. The last standing #bears have capitulated and everyone is in the #pool." – Scott Rubner, $GS
There has been absolutely no demand for election protection at this stage.@zerohedge pic.twitter.com/rC6ShLo5z0— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) July 8, 2024
'The underperformance of the equal-weight index has reached extreme levels. The S&P 500 no longer accurately represents the broad performance of US large-cap stocks.' t.co/rJL7fcxbnk via @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/jSFlkfUZ4c
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) July 8, 2024
This is a bullish development for the markets
10-year Treasury yield continues its decline
Especially with the labor market weakening
The ongoing melt-up has truly been historic pic.twitter.com/RlgNZ8Ag9u
— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) July 8, 2024
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