538 forecast says Trump Biden is 50-50. Nate Silver — Biden has 27 percent chance of winning.

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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

People are engaged in a lot of poll cherry-picking, obviously, and that's especially important to consider when evaluating polls with strong house effects, as I discuss in today's quick note: pic.twitter.com/E5kCETlnUf

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 12, 2024

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