The S&P 500 has reached an alarming 177% above its trend, setting a new record by the end of October. For perspective, in 1929 it peaked at 78% above trend, and in 2000 it hit 110%. This is a clear indication of market overheating.
- Warren Buffett’s Selling Spree
Berkshire Hathaway has been selling stocks for two years straight, with $34.6 billion in net sales during Q3 alone. This marks the 8th consecutive quarter of stock sales, signaling Buffett’s cautious approach amidst the market frenzy. - No Share Buybacks
For the first time since 2018, Buffett’s firm did not repurchase any of its own shares. This is a rare move for the Oracle of Omaha, further signaling his concerns about the market’s valuation. - Consumer Sentiment vs. Stock Prices
Consumer sentiment is at near all-time lows, yet the stock market and Bitcoin continue to hit record highs. This disconnect raises serious questions about the sustainability of these price levels. - At the Top of the Regression Channel
The S&P 500 is currently sitting at the very top of its regression channel. This position historically signals potential market corrections, making the current levels precarious. - CAPE Ratio at Extreme Levels
The Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings (CAPE) ratio is almost 3 standard deviations above its historical mean. This suggests the market is significantly overvalued, increasing the likelihood of a downturn.
These red flags suggest the market could be heading for a correction, making it crucial for investors to be cautious as the S&P 500 remains inflated at historic highs.
As of the end of October, the S&P 500 is 177% above its trend. A new record. 👇🏼
For context, at the peak in 1929 it was 78% above trend and in 2000 it was 110% above trend. pic.twitter.com/XhfS1SAsMD
— Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) November 10, 2024
‼️WARREN BUFFETT HAS BEEN SELLING STOCKS FOR 2 YEARS NOW‼️
Berkshire Hathaway sold on net $34.6 billion worth of stock in Q3, 8th straight quarter of selling.
The Oracle of Omaha also did not buy back any of its shares for the 1st time since 2018.👇https://t.co/PyOebL4WI8
— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) November 10, 2024
Serious question: how is consumer sentiment at near all-time lows but the stock market & Bitcoin are at all-time highs? Makes no sense. https://t.co/jUAkzRV7U3
— Porter Stansberry (@porterstansb) November 10, 2024
The S&P 500 Index with Regression Channel.
As you can see, we are at the very top of the channel right now. 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/1J2acEPOxa
— Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) November 10, 2024
PE/10 = CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings) Ratio
The current ratio is almost 3 standard deviations above its arithmetic mean. 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/VvI8VqVVIv
— Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) November 10, 2024
President Camacho is back.
It's time for an IQ test.
Of the last four bear markets, how many did the Idiocracy see coming?
0/4. pic.twitter.com/WQhJHvZNpp
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) November 9, 2024